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Result for the “BFGS” method for the 1989-1990 epidemic (different alpha values, mle2):

For the guess of parameters beta1 = 0.3 alpha1 = 0.2 Ne = 1377 I1 = 1 beta2 = 0.3 alpha2 = 0.2 I2 = 1, we obtained

beta1 = 2.365927e+00 alpha1 = 1.499452e+00 Ne = 1.377045e+03 I1 = 9.553034e-01 beta2 = 4.978724e+00 alpha2 = 4.364295e+00 I2 = 9.203586e-03

So, this implies that f = 1.377045e+03/27653146 = 4.979705e-05

The MLE was -72.9

AICc = 169.9769

Here’s a plot of the model with the data (red is the data, blue is the sum of the two models, purple is the lamb1 model, green is the lamb2 model, and orange is the baseline)

1989-1990_epi_base_mle2.pdf

Weston: Looks like this gave us a really good fit to the data.