Go back to Flu Mortality
Result 1989-1990 epidemic 3 SIR model Baseline Same Alpha BFGS (neg fast C code)
For the guess of parameters beta1 = 8.4 alpha1 = 8.3 Ne = 3876.95 I1 = 1 beta2 = 8.4 I2 = 1 beta3 = 8.4 I3 = 1, we obtained
beta1 = 1.411150e+01 alpha1 = 1.348213e+01 Ne = 3.876672e+03 I1 = 3.229623e-03 beta2 = 1.408714e+01 I2 = 3.117645e-01 beta3 = 1.446912e+01 I3 = 3.582688e-02
So, this implies that f = 3.876672e+03/27653146 = 0.0001401892
The MLE was -72.03
Weston: There are NA values in the CI given.
The confidence intervals for the coefficients
2.5 % 97.5 %
beta1 1.271276e+01 1.422404e+01
alpha1 1.333003e+01 1.423706e+01
N 4.409501e+03 6.220756e+03
I1 5.456785e-03 5.140062e-02
beta2 NA 1.448163e+01
I2 4.538077e-01 2.558128e+00
beta3 1.419994e+01 1.507253e+01
I3 1.077502e-02 NA
r 4.453350e+09 5.098073e+09
So, r = 9460771
AICc value 182.0587
Here’s a plot of the model with the data (black is the data, blue is the sum of the two models and baseline, red is the first SIR model, yellow is the second SIR model, brown is the third SIR model, and orange is the baseline)
Here are the three SIR models, overall data, and regional data (blue is the BC data, green is the Ontario data, and purple is the Quebec data).