Go back to Flu Mortality
Result 1991-1992 epidemic 2 SIR model Baseline Same Alpha BFGS (neg fast C code)
For the guess of parameters beta1 = 5.002665e+01 alpha1 = 4.980723e+01 Ne = 4.111553e+04 I1 = 1.783489e-02 beta2 = 5.028681e+01 I2 = 2.717905e-02, we obtained
beta1 = 4.242100e+01 alpha1 = 4.220145e+01 Ne = 3.486214e+04 I1 = 2.113971e-02 beta2 = 4.268133e+01 I2 = 3.193719e-02
So, this implies that f = 3.486214e+04/28301730 = 0.001231802
The MLE was -88.16
Weston: This CI contains NA values.
The confidence intervals for the coefficients
2.5 % 97.5 %
beta1 NA 4.258851e+01
alpha1 4.208430e+01 4.246063e+01
N 1.895403e+04 4.911547e+04
I1 6.330622e-02 8.211409e-01
beta2 NA 4.300509e+01
I2 2.646794e-02 3.006844e-01
r 1.391645e+10 1.593285e+10
So, r = 17,997,748.
AICc value 197.7814
Here’s a plot of the model with the data (black is the data, blue is the sum of the two models and baseline, red is the first SIR model, yellow is the second SIR model, and orange is the baseline)
Here are the two SIR models, overall data, and regional data (blue is the BC data, green is the Ontario data, and purple is the Quebec data).