Go back to Flu Mortality
Result 1992-1993 epidemic 2 SIR model Baseline Different Alpha BFGS (neg fast C code)
For the guess of parameters beta1 = 0.3 alpha1 = 0.2 Ne = 4701.312 I1 = 1 beta2 = 0.3 alpha2 = 0.2 I2 = 1, we obtained
beta1 = 4.039442e+01 alpha1 = 3.969618e+01 Ne = 1.016278e+04 I1 = 2.369992e-01 beta2 = 1.240210e+01 alpha2 = 1.187180e+01 I2 = 1.209165e-02
So, this implies that f = 1.016278e+04/28680833 = 0.0003543405
The MLE was -88.64
The confidence intervals for the coefficients
2.5 % 97.5 %
beta1 NA 4.129901e+01
alpha1 3.844846e+01 NA
N 6.768020e+03 1.919424e+04
I1 2.776004e-01 8.529845e-01
beta2 1.192945e+01 1.262779e+01
alpha2 1.168925e+01 1.225336e+01
I2 1.004756e-02 5.213274e-02
r 3.633148e+10 4.159570e+10
Weston: Seeing as there are some NA's, I'll have to try and rerun this model.
So, r = 46,790,609.
AICc value 202.8748
Here’s a plot of the model with the data (black is the data, blue is the sum of the two models and baseline, red is the first SIR model, yellow is the second SIR model, and orange is the baseline)
Here are the two SIR models, overall data, and regional data (blue is the BC data, green is the Ontario data, and purple is the Quebec data).