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Result 1995-1996 epidemic 2 SIR model Baseline Same Alpha BFGS (neg fast C code)
For the guess of parameters beta1 = 5.7 alpha1 = 3.4 Ne = 5695.91 I1 = 1 beta2 = 1.3 I2 = 1, we obtained
beta1 = 1.498343e+00 alpha1 = 1.329759e+00 Ne = 5.695718e+03 I1 = 8.521516e+00 beta2 = 4.799326e-04 I2 = 8.850028e-04
So, this implies that f = 5.695718e+03/29598699 = 0.0001924314
The MLE was -128.54
The confidence intervals for the coefficients
2.5 % 97.5 %
beta1 1.478167e+00 1.5178286
alpha1 1.310935e+00 1.3493722
N 7.114352e+03 7457.2132077
I1 6.424269e+00 10.8867295
beta2 3.016686e-04 0.4182431
I2 7.876560e+01 90.9869829
r 9.570745e+02 979.2315578
So, r = 261.3965.
AICc value 275.9575
Here’s a plot of the model with the data (black is the data, blue is the sum of the two models and baseline, red is the first SIR model, yellow is the second SIR model, and orange is the baseline)
Here are the two SIR models, overall data, and regional data (blue is the BC data, green is the Ontario data, and purple is the Quebec data).
Here are the two SIR models, overall data, and laboratory data (blue is the type A flu data, green is the type B flu data).
Weston: Here, the first SIR model (red) corresponds to type A flu (blue) and the second SIR model (yellow) corresponds to type B flu (green).