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Result 1997-1998 Epidemic 2 SIR model Baseline Same Alpha SANN/BFGS (neg fast C code)
For the guess of parameters beta1 = 4.9 alpha1 = 4.8 Ne = 12183.5 I1 = 2.1 beta2 = 5.3 I2 = 0.002, we obtained
beta1 = 4.921628e+00 alpha1 = 4.792773e+00 Ne = 1.218372e+04 I1 = 2.125126e+00 beta2 = 5.276053e+00 I2 = 2.040244e-03
So, this implies that f = 1.218372e+04/30170983 = 0.0004038224
The MLE was -153.59
Weston: This CI contains a NA value.
The confidence intervals for the coefficients
2.5 % 97.5 %
beta1 4.889125e+00 4.948286e+00
alpha1 4.783770e+00 4.845552e+00
N 1.151415e+04 3.161527e+04
I1 1.107991e+00 3.047018e+00
beta2 5.222006e+00 5.293011e+00
I2 1.068394e-03 1.089485e-02
r 3.511608e+02 NA
So, r = 692.8034
AICc value 325.0415
Here’s a plot of the model with the data (black is the data, blue is the sum of the two models and baseline, red is the first SIR model, yellow is the second SIR model, and orange is the baseline)
Here are the two SIR models, overall data, and regional data (blue is the BC data, green is the Ontario data, and purple is the Quebec data).
epi92sasannac1n2_regional_.pdf
Here are the two SIR models, overall data, and laboratory data (blue is the type A flu data, green is the type B flu data).