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Result 1998-1999 Epidemic 2 SIR model Baseline Same Alpha BFGS (neg fast C code)
For the guess of parameters beta1 = 1.1 alpha1 = 1 Ne = 7763.228 I1 = 1 beta2 = 1.1 I2 = 1, we obtained
beta1 = 4.064741e+01 alpha1 = 4.065057e+01 Ne = 1.394425e+05 I1 = 4.386613e-01 beta2 = 4.097135e+01 I2 = 2.854797e-02
So, this implies that f = 1.394425e+05/30433887 = 0.004581817
The MLE was -144.5
Weston: This CI contains two NA values.
The confidence intervals for the coefficients
2.5 % 97.5 %
beta1 NA 4.113496e+01
alpha1 4.061330e+01 4.082754e+01
N 6.134011e+04 2.665645e+05
I1 6.879309e-01 1.027373e+00
beta2 NA 4.114321e+01
I2 1.479278e-02 1.034837e-01
r 1.090235e+02 1.326057e+03
So, r = 270.2986
AICc value 307.3100
Here’s a plot of the model with the data (black is the data, blue is the sum of the two models and baseline, red is the first SIR model, yellow is the second SIR model, and orange is the baseline)
Here are the two SIR models, overall data, and regional data (blue is the BC data, green is the Ontario data, and purple is the Quebec data).
epi102sabfgsac1n_regional_.pdf
Here are the two SIR models, overall data, and laboratory data (blue is the type A flu data, green is the type B flu data).