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Results for 1989-1990 epidemic “BFGS” method (MLE2 method):

For the guess of parameters beta = 0.3, alpha = 0.2, N = 1377, and I0 = 1 on the simple data, we obtained

beta = 1.0149474 alpha = 0.5525591 Ne = 1377.0088126 I0 = 12.9842507

The MLE was -285.71

Here’s a plot of the model with the data (blue is the model and red is the data)

1989-1990_data_single_sir_model.pdf

Weston: The fit is different from the optim method, but not much (they're both not very good). The difference is probably caused by using the “round” method on the data subtracted from the baseline.