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Result for the “BFGS” method for the basic SIR data and single epidemic model:

For the guess of parameters beta = 0.3 alpha = 0.2 Ne = 1800 I = 1, we obtained

beta = 1.6632951 alpha = 0.7186123 Ne = 1797.4594924 I = 1.9795067

So, this implies that f = 1797.4594924/27653146 = 0.0000650002

The MLE was -69.94

Here’s a plot of the model with the data (red is the data, blue is the model)

test_plot_for_mle_2_method_basic_sir_data_.pdf

Weston: This is very close to the other one, which means the method works!